Modelos de incidencia de factores sociales de riesgo sobre la tasa de criminalidad en las capitales de provincia españolas

AutorJosé A. López-Ruiz
Páginas27-41
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0∋2∋#)(#−∗(/(#0∋2−&∋%,(+#∀∋)#&()∗∀3,/∋)#/(∀#α∋/(∀∋#Ε#≅3,%∀,#>Λ8##
%
%
%
%
(
#γ&7&%−(Χ=7(6&7%#)0(%)#%−&/−+/&7(.%,∀ϑ#7#.0#)%Χ(,#/()%,#%7#∗7#)∀_.%−(.%∀.0#7&−−∀_.%#.07#%
Ε&7∀&6/#)%=7#,∀−0(7&)% ,#%/()% Κ+#% .(%)#% ,&% −+#.0&%#.% #)0#%0#⊥0(% &% −&+)&%,#% /&% 67#Ε#,&,%,#/%
Χ∀)Χ(3#
&
!>00=)?≅≅ΑΑΑ37=7(Β#−03(7∗3%
%1:(Α81:(2!Α8!Π2:?;489!89?47:?742>89!Α8!4(89Β;!9;Χ48!>2!?292!Α8!:4(≅(12>(Α2ΑΘ!!!ΕΗ!
Ζ&6/&%53%%
MODELO 6
CRIMI ~ DENSIDAD1 + DENSIDAD1 * PROPEXTR1 + DENSIDAD1 *
EDADMEDIAN + DENSIDAD1 * RENTAMEDIA
Coeficientes:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -1.405e+01 1.319e+01 -1.065 0.2944
DENSIDAD1 5.532e-03 4.240e-03 1.305 0.2005
PROPEXTR1 4.076e-01 1.507e-01 2.705 0.0105 *
EDADMEDIAN 1.887e-01 2.798e-01 0.674 0.5045
RENTAMEDIA 2.472e-04 2.589e-04 0.955 0.3462
DENSIDAD1:PROPEXTR1 -6.806e-05 4.660e-05 -1.460 0.1531
DENSIDAD1:EDADMEDIAN -7.496e-05 9.737e-05 -0.770 0.4465
DENSIDAD1:RENTAMEDIA -6.601e-08 7.856e-08 -0.840 0.4065
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
#
9∋#0∗,∀# ∀∀(Ν,&Μ,#,# 3∋2, ∀,# /(0∃)∃5+# /(# (ς3&,(∀,# /(+)∃/,/# /(# −∋%∀,0∃5+# /(∀#
0∋+Τ∗+3∋#/(#−&(/∃03∋&()# 4#−&∋%,∗+,#()3&,3(6∃,# /(#0∋2%∃+,0∃∋+()#(+3&(#∀,)#∋3&,)#
Ν,&∃,%∀()Υ#−,&,#(ς3&,((∀#2(Τ∋ ∀.6∀∃&(/(#Ν,&∃,%∀()8#!)3∋# )(#:∃#∗3∃∀∃
∀∃%&(&Μ,# ∀(,−)# 0∋+# ∀,# ;∗+0∃5+# &(6)∗%)(3)# 1(# −(&2∃3(# 1∗(# (∀# ,∀6∋&∃32∋# /(#
)(∀(00∃5+#)(,# (ς:,∗)3∃Ν∋#(+# ∀,)# 0∋2%∃+,0∃∋+()8# Ρ(# ()3(# 2∋/∋Υ# −,&3∃(+/∋# /(# /∃(
Ν,&∃,%∀()#≅3,%∀,# ΩΛΥ# ()# −∋)∃%∀(#,+,∀∃ Ν,&∃,0∃5+# /(∀# 0∋(;∃0∃(+3(#/(# (&&∋ −Υ# ∀∋)#
&()∃/∗,∀()#/(#∀,#)∗2,#/(#0∗,/&,/∋)#4#∀∋)#0∋(;∃0∃(+3()#/(#0∋&&(∀,0∃5+#/(#∀∋)#2∋/(∀∋)#
)(6Ψ+# (∀# +Ψ2(&∋# /(# Ν,&∃,%∀()# ∃+0∀∗∃/,)Υ# −,&,# 0∋+0∀∗∃ 1∗(# (∀# 2(Τ∋ )∗%0∋+Τ∗+3∋#
∃+0∀∗∃&Μ,#(+3&(#Η#4#Ε#Ν,&∃,%∀()8#
!
Ζ&6/&%Μ3%!∀#∃%Ε&7∀&6/#)%
ΚΞ_ΧΑΞΚΠΣ#ϖ#Σ,),#/(#/()(2−∀(∋#
ΣΞαβΧχ# ϖ# Σ,2,=∋# 2(/∃∋# /(∀#
:∋6,&#
Ξ!Σ!αΚ# ϖ# Ξ%,+/∋+∋# (/∗0,3∃Ν∋#
3(2−&,+∋#
βΧχΞ_[ΟΠΚ!_# ϖ# β∋6,&()#
∗+∃−(&)∋+,∀()#
αΞοΧ_ΕΗ# ϖ# Κ&∋−∋&0∃5+# /(#
2,4∋&()#/(#ΕΗ#,=∋)#
_!ΟΣΞα!ΡΠΞ# ϖ# _(+3,# 2(/∃,# /(∀#
:∋6,&#
!ΡΞΡα!ΡΠΞΟ#ϖ#!/,/#2(/∃,+,#/(#
∀,#−∋%∀,0∃5+#
ΣΞΒΞΚΧ9# ϖ# Σ,),# /(# −∋∀∃0Μ,# −∋
0,/,#∆????#:,%∃3,+3()#
Κ_ΧΚ!⊥Σ_∆# ϖ# Κ&∋−∋&0∃5+# /(#
(ς3&,+Τ(&∋)φ# 3∋/,)# ∀,# +,0∃∋+,∀∃/,/#
2(+∋)#0∃∗/,/,+∋)#[!#
Ρ!ΒΠχ[Ξ9ΡΞΡ# Φ# ∋()∗+,)−.∃ )/∃
./)0++∗1(∃)/∃2,∃)/3∗40,2),)∃3−+∗,2#
#
Κ,&,#∃/(+3∃;∃0,&#∀,)#2(Τ∋&()#ΗΦΕ#Ν,&∃,%∀()#)(#(2−∀(,&∋+#∀∋)#2.3∋/∋)#3∋/Υ∗/0#4#
6∗%Υ∗/0(∀&∃#Υ)∀∃#,+3()#/()0&∃3∋)Υ#∀∃2∃3,+/∋#(∀#,∀6∋&∃32∋#/(#%Ψ)1∗(/,#−,&,#∃+0∀∗∃
)5∀∋#)(∃)#/(#Ν,&∃,%∀()8#9,)#Ν,&∃,%∀()#)(∀(00∃∋+,/,)#−∋,2%∋)#2.3∋/∋)Υ#(+#∋&/(+#/(#
ΕΙ!Ρ;9Σ!0Τ!,Υς8Ω∗7(!
!
)(∀(00∃5+Υ#)∋+# ∀,)#&(0∋6∃/,)#(+# ∀,# )∃6∗∃(+3(#3,%∀,8# Α∋2∋# )(#−∗(/(# 0∋2−&∋%,&Υ#)∋ +#
3∋3,∀2(+3(#0∋∃+0∃/(+3()#3,+3∋#(+#−&(/∃03∋&()#0∋2∋#(+#∋&/(+#)(∀(00∃5+8#
#
Ζ&6/&%Γ3%Ψ#∀)%Ε&7∀&6/#)%
>Μ&∋0∋(0∃(∀∃+∃%%)]∋/Υ∗/0(
∀&∃#Υ)∀∃(
∆8!Κ_ΧΚ!⊥Σ_∆#
>8!ΚΞ_ΧΑΞΚΠΣ#
Ω8!_!ΟΣΞα!ΡΠΞ#
Ι8!αΞοΧ_ΕΗ#
Η8!!ΡΞΡα!ΡΠΞΟ#
Ε8!βΧχΞ_[ΟΠΚ#
#
Ξ∀#0,∀0∗∀,∀,#;∗+0∃5+#/(# &(6&()∃5+#−,&,#()3,)#Ν,&∃,%∀()#≅α∋/(∀∋# Γ#(+#3,%∀,#ΗΛΥ#
)(# ∋%)(&Ν,# 1∗(# (∀# 2∋/(∀∋# &()∗∀3,# (;(03∃Ν∋Υ# 0∃+0∋# /(# ∀,)# )(∃)# Ν,&∃,%∀()# 3∃(+(+#
0∋(;∃0∃(+3()# /(# )∃6+∃;∃0,0∃5+# ,0(−3,%∀()Υ# /∋)# /(# (∀∀,)# (+# (∀# 2,&6(+# /(# 2(Τ∋
)∃6+∃;∃0,0∃5+#≅−ρ?#(+#−&∋−∋&0∃5+#/(#(ς3&,+Τ(&∋)#4#−,&∋#0,−∃3,∀()ΛΥ#∀,#−&∋−∋&0∃5+#/(#
2,4∋&()#/(#ΕΗ#,=∋)#0∋+ #−?Υ??∆#4#/∋)#ϖ&(+3,# 2(/∃,#4#(/,/#2(/∃,+,Φ#0∋+#−?Υ?Η8#
9,#Ν,&∃,%∀(#:∋6,&()#∗+∃−(&)∋+,∀()#3∃(+(#∗+,#−&∋%,%∃∀∃/,/#/(#(&&∋,4∋/(#?Υ∆#)∃#
%∃(+#1∗(/,#2∗4#0(&0,#/(#()3(#Ν,∀∋&8#
#
Ζ&6/&%Ο%σ%ϕ(,#/(%Ν%
Call:
glm(formula = CRIMI ~ PROPEXTR1 + PAROCAPIT + RENTAMEDIA + MAYOR65 +
EDADMEDIAN + HOGARUNIPER, data = datos)
Coeficientes:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 1.551e+01 8.505e+00 1.823 0.075749 .
PROPEXTR1 2.434e-01 4.715e-02 5.162 7.05e-06 ***
PAROCAPIT 1.407e-01 3.312e-02 4.248 0.000125 ***
RENTAMEDIA 1.237e-04 5.435e-05 2.275 0.028323 *
MAYOR65 6.180e-01 2.039e-01 3.031 0.004263 **
EDADMEDIAN -6.515e-01 2.725e-01 -2.391 0.021606 *
HOGARUNIPER -1.131e-01 6.876e-02 -1.645 0.107785
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
#
#
#
#
%1:(Α81:(2!Α8!Π2:?;489!89?47:?742>89!Α8!4(89Β;!9;Χ48!>2!?292!Α8!:4(≅(12>(Α2ΑΘ!!!Εϑ!
Σ∋2,+/∋# ∀∋)# ,+3(&∃∋&()# &()∗∀3,/∋)#/(∀# 2∋/(∀∋Υ# ∀,# (0∗,0∃5+# 1∗(/,# 0∋+# ∀∋)#
)∃6∗∃(+3()#0∋(;∃0∃(+3()φ#
#
Α_ΠαΠ#ρ#∆ΗΥΗ∆#Θ#?Υ>ΙΩΙΚ_ΧΚ!⊥Σ_∆#Θ#?Υ∆Ι?ΓΚΞ_ΧΑΞΚΠΣ#Θ#
?Υ???Ω_!ΟΣΞα!ΡΠΞ#Θ#?ΥΕ∆ναΞοΧ_ΕΗ#Θ#≅Φ?8ΕΗ∆Λ!ΡΞΡα!ΡΠΞΟ#Θ#≅Φ
?Υ∆∆ΩΛβΧχΞ_[ΟΠΚ#
9∋)#(∀(Ν,/∋)#0∋(;∃0∃(+3()#/(#,Τ∗)3(#&()∗∀3,+3()#∃+/∗Τ(&∋+#,#−(+),∗(#−∋/&Μ,#
()3,&)(# −&∋/∗0∃(+/∋# ∋3&∋# (;(03∋# /(# ∃+3(&,00∃5+# (+3&(# Ν,&∃,%∀()8# Κ,&,# 3(+( (+#
0∗(+3,#∀,#∃+3(&,00∃5+# 1∗(#−∗(/(#3(+( (∀#/()(2−∀(∋#)∋%&(# ∀∋)#∋3&∋)#−&(/∃03∋&()Υ# ∋#
∀,#−&∋−∋&0∃5+#/(#∃+2∃6&,+3()Υ#−∗()#−∋/&Μ,+#()3,,03∗,+/∋#0∋2∋#∀∋# 1∗(#)(#0∋+∋0(#
0∋2∋#;,03∋&()#(+/56(+∋)#/(∀#2∋/(∀∋#1∗(#∃+0∃/(+#)∋%&(#∀∋)#∋3&∋)#−&(/∃03∋&()Υ#)(#:,#
0,∀0∗∀,/∋#∗+#+∗(Ν∋#2∋/(∀∋#/(#&(6&()∃5+#0∋+#Ν,&∃,%∀()#∃+)3&∗2(+3,∀()(+∃(+/∋#(+#
0∗(+3,#1∗(# (∀#2∋/(∀∋# /(# &(6&()∃5+#+∋# 0∋+∀∀(Ν,# +∗+0,#∗+,#&(∀,0∃5+# /(# 0,∗),∀∃/,/#
(+3&(#−&(/∃03∋&()#4#&()∗∀3,/∋Υ#)(#:,#−&∋%,/∋#∀,# 0∋+)∃)3(+0∃,#/(#∀,#∃+3(&,00∃∋+#/(#∀,#
∃+2∃6&,0∃∋+Υ# 0∋2∋# 8∗/)∗6+∃( ),∀&/.2∃,&∗+Υ# ,)∗2∃(+/∋# )∗# −∋)∃%∀(# ∃+3(&,0∃5+Υ#
0∋/(−(+/(+0∃,# ∋# (+/∋6(+(∃/,/# 0∋+# ∀∋)# ∋3&∋)# −&(/∃03∋&()8# 9,# −&∗(%,# &(,∀∃
+/∃0,#1∗(# (∀# /()(2−∀(∋Υ# :∋6,&()# ∗+∃−(&)∋+,∀()# 4# −&∋−∋&0∃5+# /(# 2,4∋&()# /(# ΕΗ#
,=∋)#,03Ψ,+#∃+)3&∗2(+3,∀∃
,∃)∀,+/∋#(∀# (;(03∋#(+3&(# 0,/,#−, /(# Ν,&∃,%∀()#(+# ∗+,#/∋%∀(# ;∗+0∃∋+# /(#07∀0∗∀∋# /(#
2Μ+∃2∋)#0∗,/&,/∋)Υ#(∀#0∋(;∃0∃(+3(#/(#0∋&&(∀,0∃∋+#,Τ∗)3,/∋#≅/#0∗,/&,/∋Λ#()#,∀3∋#4#∀,#
)∃6+∃;∃0,0∃5+#/(#∀,#∃+2∃6&,0∃5+#0,(#0∋+#∗+#Ν,∀∋&#−,&,#∀,#−&∋%,%∃∀∃/,/#/(#(&&∋##2∗4#
,∀3∋#≅3,%∀,#ΕΛ8##
#
Ζ&6/&%Θ3%Ξ(#ϑ∀−∀#.0#%,#%%]%Ε&/(7%γ%
!∃234(5∀% ∗∃% 6#∀6∀#237(% 54% 3(839#∃(:4−%
;∃#3∃4(5794(∃?%
1∀4≅3234(:4%54%Α%
2=∃5#∃5∀%
Β∃∗∀#%+%
γη%
8359%
83ΠΠ%
ρφη%
838Π%
8355%
ϕηπφ%
83ΜΘ%
835Π%
Χ∀% ∆∃234(5∀% ∗∃% 6#∀6∀#237(% 54%
3(839#∃(:4−% ;∃#3∃
>4Ε794(∃?%
1∀4≅3234(:4%54%Α%
2=∃5#∃5∀%
Β∃∗∀#%+%
Λ!η!ϕΛ!Ιηβ%
83ΜΠ%
838Μν%
%
83Γ9%
8389ν%
##
[+,#Ν( −&∋%,/∋#(∀# (;(03∋#∃+)3&∗2(+3,∀# /(#∀,# 3,),#/(# ∃+2∃6&,+3()Υ#()# −∋)∃%∀(#
0&(, ∗+# +∗(Ν∋# 2∋/(∀∋# /(# &(6&()∃5+# 2Ψ∀3∃−∀(# ≅2∋/(∀∋# νΛ# 1∗(# ∃+3(6&,# −,&,# )∗#
07∀0∗∀∋# (∀# (;(03∋# ∃+)3&∗2(+3,∀# 1∗(# 3∃(+(+# )∋%&(# ∀,# ∃+2∃6&,0∃5+# ∀,)# 3&()# Ν,&∃,%∀()#
,+3()#/()0&∃3,)Υ#/∃)3∃+6∗∃(+/∋#/∋)#+∃Ν(∀()#/(#Ν,&∃,%∀()Υ#∗+,)# 1∗(#∃+)3&∗2(+3,∀∃
∀,# ∃+2∃6&,0∃5+# ≅(+/56(+,)Λ# 4# ∋3&,)# 1∗(# +∋# 3∃(+(+# ()3(# (;(03∋# ≅(ς56(+,)Λ8# 9∋)#
ΕΚ!Ρ;9Σ!0Τ!,Υς8Ω∗7(!
!
&()∗∀3,/∋)# /(# ()3(# 2∋/(∀∋# ≅3,%∀,# ΓΛ# ∃+/∃0,+# 1∗(# 2(Τ∋&,#∀,# )∃6+∃;∃0,0∃5+# /(# ∀,#
−&∋−∋&0∃5+#/(#∃+2∃6&,+3()#≅Ν,∀∋/(#−ρ?Υ?ΩΗΩΛΥ#2∃(+3&,)#1∗(#(∀#∃+6&()∋#2(/∃∋#4#∀,#
(/,/#2(/∃,+,#−∃(&/(+#−()∋#(+# (∀#2∋/(∀∋#/(#−&(/∃00∃5+Υ# )∃+#∀∀(6,,#3(+()∗;∃(+3(#
)∃6+∃;∃0,0∃5+8#[+#:,∀∀, (∀#0∋(;∃0∃(+3(#%(3,#−,&,#−&∋−∋&0∃5+#
/(#∃+2∃6&,+3()#/()0∃(+/(#/(∀#?Υ>Ι#/(∀#2∋/(∀∋#Γ#,∀#?Υ∆Γ#(+#()3(#2∋/(∀∋8#!∀#−&∋%∀(2,#
()#1∗(#(∀#2∋/(∀∋#Μ+3(6&∋#+∋#3∃(+(#)∗;0∃(+3(#Ν,∀∃/(#
#
Ζ&6/&%Ν%σ%ϕ(,#/(%Π%
Call:
ivreg(formula = CRIMI ~ PROPEXTR1 + RENTAMEDIA + EDADMEDIAN |
. - PROPEXTR1 + PAROCAPIT + HOGARUNIPER + MAYOR65, data = datos)
Coeficientes:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 4.336e+00 3.495e+00 1.241 0.2215
PROPEXTR1 1.767e-01 8.128e-02 2.174 0.0353 *
RENTAMEDIA 4.954e-05 7.164e-05 0.691 0.4930
EDADMEDIAN -6.869e-02 8.336e-02 -0.824 0.4145
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
#
π∗(#+∋# 3(+6,#Ν,∀∃/( −&(/∃03∃Ν,Υ#+∋#1∗∃(&(# /(0∃ 1∗(#+∋# ∀,#3(+6,# (+#0∗,+3∋# ,#
Ν,∀∃/( 0∋+3(+∃/∋# 4# /(∀# 0∋+)3&∗03∋# ≅Α,&2∃+()# 4#θ(∀∀(&Υ# ∆ϑΓϑΥ# −8#∆ΓΛΥ# 4,# 1∗(# )Μ#
,−∋&3,&Μ,#/()/(#∗+# −∗+3∋#/(#Ν∃)3,# 3(5&∃0∋#4# /(#Ν,∀∋∃+3(&−&(3,3∃Ν∋# ≅1∗(#)(# −∗(/(#
/(),&&∋∀∀,(+#;∗3∗&∋)#3&,%,Τ∋)Λ8#Κ∋∀∋#3,+3∋Υ#(∀#2∋/(∀∋#ν#−∋+(#(+#0∗()3∃5+#Ν,∀∋(∀#
−&(/∃03∃Ν∋# :,∀∀,/∋# (+# ∀,# ∃+2∃6&,0∃5+Υ# −∗()# ()3,# Ν,&∃,%∀(# −&∋%,%∀(2(+3(#)(#
(+0∗(+3&,#(+#∃+3(&,00∃5+# 0∋+#∋3&,)# 0∃&0∗+)3,+0∃,)#)∋0∃,∀()# +∋#&(0∋6∃/,)#/(+3&∋#(∀#
2∋/(∀∋8#
Κ,&,# 0(&&, (∀#()3∗/∃∋# )(# &(,∀∃∃)# −,&3∃(+/∋# /(∀# Ψ∀3∃2∋#
2∋/(∀∋#−&∋−∗()3∋φ##
!Κ&∃2(&∋# (∀# ,+7∀∃)∃)# /(# ∀,# 0∋&&(∀,0∃5+# (+3&(# 3∋/∋)# ∀∋)# −&(/∃03∋&()# 4# ∀,#
−&∋−∋&0∃5+# /(# ∃+2∃6&,+3()Υ# −,&,# 0∋2−&(+/( ∋# ∃+3(&−&(3, 2(Τ∋ (∀#
&()∗∀3,/∋#,+3(&∃∋&φ #)(# ∋%)(&Ν,# 1∗(Υ# )5∀∋# (∀# ∃+6&()∋# 2(/∃∋# −∋ :∋6, 4# ∀,#
−&∋−∋&0∃5+#/(#:∋6,&()#∗+∃−(&)∋+,∀()#3∃(+(+#−∋0,#)∃6+∃;∃0,0∃5+Υ#)∃(+/∋#0,)∃#
+(∗3&,∀#(∀#−&∃2(&∋# 4#+,/,#)∃6+∃;∃0,3∃Ν,# ∀,#0∋&&(∀,0∃5+#/(∀# )(6∗+/∋#≅6&7;∃0∋#
Λ8#9,#2,3&∃ /(#0∋&&(∀,0∃∋+()# &(0∋6(#∗+,# ;∗(&3(#0∋&&(∀,0∃5+#+(6,3∃Ν,# 0∋+#
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#
7αϑ∀−(%9%
Ζ&6/&%Π#
MODELO 9
Call:
lm(formula = CRIMI ~ PROPEXTR1 + PAROCAPIT * (-1) + RENTAMEDIA +
+EDADMEDIAN * (-1), data = datos1)
Coeficientes:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
PROPEXTR1 2.367e-01 3.204e-02 7.387 6.34e-09 ***
PAROCAPIT 9.912e-02 1.892e-02 5.239 5.87e-06 ***
RENTAMEDIA 7.530e-05 4.035e-05 1.866 0.0696 .
EDADMEDIAN -4.640e-02 2.856e-02 -1.624 0.1123
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 0.7796 on 39 degrees of freedom
(6 observations deleted due to missingness)
Multiple R-squared: 0.9708, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9679
F-statistic: 324.7 on 4 and 39 DF, p-value: 2.2e-16
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