Winners cursed: Lessons from the european 3G spectrum auctions
| Autor | Alvaro González |
| Cargo | Telcordia Technologies |
| Páginas | 149-156 |
En este artÌculo su autor analiza las razones que han propiciado la actual crisis que vive el sector de las telecomunicaciones en Europa y, especialmente, aquella en la que se encuentran sumidas las operadoras que han obtenido licencias de 3G de mÛviles a travÈs del mecanismo de la subasta. Pone de manifiesto la falta de previsiÛn de algunas de estas operadoras y las previsiones excesivamente optimistas sobre las que basaron sus planes de negocio. El diseÒo de las subastas, hecho por los Gobiernos que las convocaron, la imposibilidad de cuantificar realmente el coste/precio de una licencia de esta tecnologÌa y el desconocimiento de la demanda real que tendr·n los servicios de 3G, son los factores que han sumido a este segmento del mercado en un clima de incertidumbre. El autor reconoce que la experiencia europea de las subastas de mÛviles de 3G y los errores cometidos est·n siendo tenidos muy en cuenta por las autoridades norteamericanas en el proceso de licitaciÛn de sus propias licencias de 3G y finaliza su artÌculo recordando que el mecanismo de la subasta ser· tan bueno -o tan malo- como sus diseÒadores lo construyan y que las mejores lecciones son las que m·s cuestan.
Given the recent financial difficulties of several European 3G spectrum license "winners", it is tempting to blame the financial troubles on the high bid prices that some auctions induced telecommunications operators to pay. In order to purchase auctioned 3G licenses, telecommunication operators increased their debt significantly, resulting in downgrades from credit-rating agencies, reduced access to cash, and falling share prices. The debt load in this sector is so large that European banking regulators worry that lenders have overextended themselves on loans made to the telecommunications industry. Providing further evidence that high bid prices induced by recent 3G auctions damaged the European telecommunications industry, BT's chief executive stated that his company had paid US$ 14 billion more than it should have for their licenses, singling out high bids for licenses in the UK and German auctions as the company's most egregious errors. Critics also cite the virtual collapse of auctions in France, Italy and Switzerland, in which investors and telecom operators became skeptical of the optimistic forecast of huge cash flows that would be generated by 3G services.
While operators and government officials in the United States are keeping a close watch on events in Europe, there is not widespread clamor emerging against auctions. However, there are lessons to be learned from the European experience. Telecommunications operators in the US are studying the rules of upcoming US auctions more carefully before bidding in their own auctions. The belief is that by knowing the rules of these auctions and how these affect their bidding strategies, operators will be able to avoid some of the bidding mistakes some European operators made. In addition, the US government is more willing than ever to listen to economists trained in game theory to analyze the possible outcomes of different auction mechanisms. In sum, the US government is convinced that auctions must be designed carefully and operators realize that they must study the rules of the auction and design bidding strategies that are not influenced by the momentum...
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